Friday, September 22, 2017

What Happened (with the voters)

Trump and Hillary were perhaps the least liked presidential candidates in US history. As a result, Stein and Johnson tripled their share of the votes. This increase in voting for minor parties sapped votes away from Clinton, whose efforts to portray Trump as an ineffective and dangerous leader failed to persuade Americans that she herself would make a good President and instead boosted votes for third-party candidates.

Trump was not quite a novel champion for whites; he received one percent less of the white vote than  Romney. Similarly to Trump with Romney, Hillary won the majority of non-white votes, but lagged behind Obama's performance in 2012. College graduates tended towards Hillary more so than Obama, perhaps due to an increase in college-educated white support.

By the end of the nomination process, both parties had chosen candidates Americans were familiar with and disliked, an unusual occurrence. However, most pundits and the media did not correctly predict which candidates would be unpopular with which groups. Non-whites that voted for Romney showed solidarity with Trump while Hillary lost some of the female support that Obama won during his election despite being a historical-first female candidate.

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